Absorption vs exhaustion at a level

Every reversal starts one of two ways. Either the aggressors run out — exhaustion — or they keep firing and someone eats every bullet — absorption. Both look like “price stopped going down.” They predict different futures, and the tape distinguishes them clearly if you know what to look at.

Exhaustion

Volume tapers into the extreme. Delta shrinks, footprints thin out, the last push covers less ground on less trade. Nobody defeated the sellers; they simply finished. Reversals from exhaustion tend to be slow and retest-prone, because no strong hand was revealed — the market just drifts back until sellers regroup or fail to.

Absorption

Volume stays heavy while price stops progressing. Delta prints deeply negative at a low that will not break; the footprint shows sellers unloading into bids that keep reloading. Someone with size chose that price in advance. Reversals from absorption are sharper, because the moment aggression flips, both the absorber’s position and the trapped sellers’ exits push the same way.

The checklist at the moment it matters

• Is volume drying up (exhaustion) or persisting (absorption)?
• Is CVD flat against a stalled price (absorption) or fading with it (exhaustion)?
• Is this happening at a level with a mechanical reason to hold — a put wall, a value edge — or in the middle of nowhere?
• After the stall: does the first bounce hold above the battle zone, or trade straight back through it?